NBA: Game 5 Brings Adjusted Line
It seemingly took Boston covering the pointspread in the first five games of the NBA Finals for oddsmakers to adjust
2008-06-17
It seemingly took Boston covering the pointspread in the first five games of the NBA Finals for oddsmakers to adjust, but finally, it appears they have, as the host Celtics are installed as a 4-point favorite for Game 6 against the Lakers. However, the betting public has taken hold of the Boston run, and over 80% of early bettors are backing that backing that side of the pointspread. Most often, that bodes well for the opponent. Still, one more win on the home court and the Celtics are NBA champions. Here’s a look at Tuesday night’s showdown.
The Boston Celtics may be home, not home free. Unable to put the finishing touches on the Los Angeles Lakers and wrap up their first championship since 1986, the NBA’s best team since November flew back across three time zones Monday for a Game 6 they were hoping they wouldn’t have to play.
But injuries, another big first-half deficit and a sub-par performance by center Kevin Garnett cost the banged-up Celtics, who lost 103-98 on Sunday in Game 5 at Los Angeles and left Staples Center kicking themselves at the missed opportunity.
The Larry O’Brien Trophy, given each year to the league’s top team, was nearly Boston’s. At one point, it appeared to be on its way to the floor for an awards ceremony now on hold. Instead of being hoisted by the Celtics, it was hauled off to LAX and loaded into a jet’s cargo hold for the six-hour flight to New England.
Despite the loss, the tradition-drenched Celtics feel good about their chances of winning a 17th title—on the 17th.
“We’re one up, with two games to go at home,” said Paul Pierce, who scored 38 in Game 5. “It still feels like we have the advantage, and I do feel like we’re the better team.”
So the 11th installment of Celtics vs. Lakers, the league’s signature rivalry and one of the best in pro sports, has at least one more 48-minute episode. After a 21-year gap between finals meetings, these teams aren’t quite ready to part company. Why would they?
Now five games old, this series has had plenty of drama (Pierce’s return from a Game 1 knee injury), history (Boston’s finals record 24-point comeback in Game 4), surprises (Leon Powe’s emergence as a Game 2 star) and even a little scandal as former referee Tim Donaghy’s allegations of fixed playoff games has hung over the finals like a layer of L.A. smog.
The Lakers are trying to become the first team in finals history to overcome a 3-1 deficit to win a title, and they’re one step closer. If they can win Game 6 on Tuesday night in TD Banknorth Garden, they’ll force a decisive Game 7 to cap a season as trying as any in commissioner David Stern’s career.
Kobe Bryant and his teammates staved off elimination Sunday by getting more physical with the Celtics, who Tuesday night will play their 26th game of this postseason—a record—and could be wearing down physically.
Los Angeles center Pau Gasol shed his “soft” label for a night and scored 19 points with 13 rebounds, banging his way inside against Garnett, the league’s best defender who couldn’t push back at the Spaniard while hampered with fouls.
Garnett was disgusted by his game and Boston’s big man vowed to make amends when the Celtics get back inside their rowdy house on Causeway Street, where Boston’s fans arrive early, party late and treat visitors with little regard.
Lakers, you’ve been warned.
With just one day off in the highly debated 2-3-2 format, Boston coach Doc Rivers expects Game 6 to be a struggle, just as Game 3 was back in Los Angeles after just a single travel day off.
“It’s a terrible turnaround,” he said. “It’s as tough as you can have. I think going West to East is tougher. Sleep patterns are messed up. It’s a tough one. There’s no way around it. But both teams have the same issue, so it could come down to a game of mental toughness, who fights the fatigue mentally better than the other group.”
The group wearing green has other issues.
Celtics center Kendrick Perkins missed Game 5 with a shoulder injury and is not expected to be ready for Game 6. Beyond that, Pierce isn’t at his best, Rajon Rondo is slowed by a tender ankle and Ray Allen left Los Angeles immediately following Sunday’s game because of a “health issue” with one of his three children.
But Boston is comforted by being at home, where they are 12-1 in the postseason, where the parquet-patterned floor soothes any nerves and where the 16 championship banners hanging overhead link the Celtics to their past and remind them of their goal.
Looking at some of the Top StatFox Power Trends in play for Game 6, most favor the hosts, including:
* LA LAKERS are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.7, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 3*)
* BOSTON is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 97.5, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 3*)
However, the Lakers were 31-17 ATS on the road this season, and Phil Jackson’s Lakers’ teams have been solid down the stretch on the road against the league’s best:
* Jackson is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA LAKERS.
The average score was LA LAKERS 95.8, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 1*)
The game figures to come down to the Boston defense’s ability to smother the Lakers once again. Aside from a handful of quarters throughout the series, the Celtics defense has been the most dominating aspect of the series. Of course, with the pointspread finally at a spot where the Lakers will have a realistic chance to win ATS, Boston could win its title without covering the number. Now that would be strange.
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