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NBA: Game 5 Brings Adjusted Line
2008-06-17
It seemingly took Boston covering the pointspread in the first five games of the NBA Finals for oddsmakers to adjust, but finally, it appears they have, as the host Celtics are installed as a 4-point favorite for Game 6 against the Lakers. However, the betting public has taken hold of the Boston run, and over 80% of early bettors are backing that backing that side of the pointspread. Most often, that bodes well for the opponent. Still, one more win on the home court and the Celtics are NBA champions. Here’s a look at Tuesday night’s showdown.
The Boston Celtics may be home, not home free. Unable to put the finishing touches on the Los Angeles Lakers and wrap up their first championship since 1986, the NBA’s best team since November flew back across three time zones Monday for a Game 6 they were hoping they wouldn’t have to play.
But injuries, another big first-half deficit and a sub-par performance by center Kevin Garnett cost the banged-up Celtics, who lost 103-98 on Sunday in Game 5 at Los Angeles and left Staples Center kicking themselves at the missed opportunity.
The Larry O’Brien Trophy, given each year to the league’s top team, was nearly Boston’s. At one point, it appeared to be on its way to the floor for an awards ceremony now on hold. Instead of being hoisted by the Celtics, it was hauled off to LAX and loaded into a jet’s cargo hold for the six-hour flight to New England.
Despite the loss, the tradition-drenched Celtics feel good about their chances of winning a 17th title—on the 17th.
“We’re one up, with two games to go at home,” said Paul Pierce, who scored 38 in Game 5. “It still feels like we have the advantage, and I do feel like we’re the better team.”
So the 11th installment of Celtics vs. Lakers, the league’s signature rivalry and one of the best in pro sports, has at least one more 48-minute episode. After a 21-year gap between finals meetings, these teams aren’t quite ready to part company. Why would they?
Now five games old, this series has had plenty of drama (Pierce’s return from a Game 1 knee injury), history (Boston’s finals record 24-point comeback in Game 4), surprises (Leon Powe’s emergence as a Game 2 star) and even a little scandal as former referee Tim Donaghy’s allegations of fixed playoff games has hung over the finals like a layer of L.A. smog.
The Lakers are trying to become the first team in finals history to overcome a 3-1 deficit to win a title, and they’re one step closer. If they can win Game 6 on Tuesday night in TD Banknorth Garden, they’ll force a decisive Game 7 to cap a season as trying as any in commissioner David Stern’s career.
Kobe Bryant and his teammates staved off elimination Sunday by getting more physical with the Celtics, who Tuesday night will play their 26th game of this postseason—a record—and could be wearing down physically.
Los Angeles center Pau Gasol shed his “soft” label for a night and scored 19 points with 13 rebounds, banging his way inside against Garnett, the league’s best defender who couldn’t push back at the Spaniard while hampered with fouls.
Garnett was disgusted by his game and Boston’s big man vowed to make amends when the Celtics get back inside their rowdy house on Causeway Street, where Boston’s fans arrive early, party late and treat visitors with little regard.
Lakers, you’ve been warned.
With just one day off in the highly debated 2-3-2 format, Boston coach Doc Rivers expects Game 6 to be a struggle, just as Game 3 was back in Los Angeles after just a single travel day off.
“It’s a terrible turnaround,” he said. “It’s as tough as you can have. I think going West to East is tougher. Sleep patterns are messed up. It’s a tough one. There’s no way around it. But both teams have the same issue, so it could come down to a game of mental toughness, who fights the fatigue mentally better than the other group.”
The group wearing green has other issues.
Celtics center Kendrick Perkins missed Game 5 with a shoulder injury and is not expected to be ready for Game 6. Beyond that, Pierce isn’t at his best, Rajon Rondo is slowed by a tender ankle and Ray Allen left Los Angeles immediately following Sunday’s game because of a “health issue” with one of his three children.
But Boston is comforted by being at home, where they are 12-1 in the postseason, where the parquet-patterned floor soothes any nerves and where the 16 championship banners hanging overhead link the Celtics to their past and remind them of their goal.
Looking at some of the Top StatFox Power Trends in play for Game 6, most favor the hosts, including:
* LA LAKERS are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.7, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 3*)
* BOSTON is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 97.5, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 3*)
However, the Lakers were 31-17 ATS on the road this season, and Phil Jackson’s Lakers’ teams have been solid down the stretch on the road against the league’s best:
* Jackson is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA LAKERS.
The average score was LA LAKERS 95.8, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 1*)
The game figures to come down to the Boston defense’s ability to smother the Lakers once again. Aside from a handful of quarters throughout the series, the Celtics defense has been the most dominating aspect of the series. Of course, with the pointspread finally at a spot where the Lakers will have a realistic chance to win ATS, Boston could win its title without covering the number. Now that would be strange.
NBA: Role players are the wagering key in Game 4
2008-06-12
The tape of Game 3 of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame, with a grand total of four players scoring in double figures and the total coming in 27.5-points below projected oddsmakers’ number. Game 4 offers new and exciting wagering opportunities, including a 7-point spread on which 72% of early bettors are backing the underdog Celtics.
Regardless of how it looked, the series picked up some juice with the Lakers winning, meaning everyone is able to stay the weekend in Los Angeles and maybe head down the coast and catch a little U.S. Open golf action. Kobe Bryant finally stepped up his game with 36 points and no way L.A. wins without the 20 from Sasha Vujacic. For Boston, this had to be mildly disheartening, Ray Allen is starting to place like the guy who wore a Seattle and Milwaukee uniform previously, but Paul Pierce managed to miss 14 of 16 shot attempts.
Before pressing on, this 2-3-2 format is proven how stupid it really is this season. ESPN’s John Barry was quoted after Game 3 (as was Phil Jackson) saying he thought it was a jet lag game. Neither team was sharp from flying cross country. Fair enough, then why will their be two games in this series played with two days of rest in the same city, with potentially another cross-country flight with just one day between the sports most important games?
Game Four of the series will be about who shows up to make a meaningful contribution. In the boxscore, Lamar Odom is listed as PF, commonly known as power forward and Vlad Radmanovic is shown as SF, a shooting forward. Odom has was once again a non-factor, shooting 2-9 and seldom in position to make positive plays, yet maybe in his case, the PF stands for personal fouls, since he picked up five again. Vlad Rad saw his minutes fall to 13, as his defensive deficiencies are visibly noticed and his lack of offense (3 points) can not overcome.
If the Lakers expect to improve upon 11-3-1 ATS record off a win, both of those players along with Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher have to play with more aplomb. Gasol has been as soft as a marshmallow in the middle, making his chest-thumping appear comical, when like an NFL cornerback burned six times in a row, jumps up to celebrate after he made a big hit on receiver 20 yards down the field. Coming into the Finals, it was thought Fisher’s experience would create an edge over the Celtics Rajon Rondo, it hasn’t. If the Lakers expect to make this a best two of three, the aforementioned four individuals have to bring their game and attitude to Staples Center for Los Angeles to win and move to 9-3 ATS as home favorites.
For all the good Rondo had done in Boston, he was discombobulated when Bryant started Game 3 guarding him. He was unable to get into the flow thereafter, before rolling is ankle, making him questionable for tonight. This becomes a real issue for the Celtics, since Rondo whole game is based on quickness and speed, without these traits, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are next options, suggesting these slow afoot, shoot-first point guards may see greater ball pressure from the Lakers, as well as double-teaming to force them to make snap judgments. Coach Doc Rivers will need to implore his back-ups to get the ball over half court quicker, since on average, the Celtics start their offensive sets just under three seconds slower when Rondo is not in the game in this series. How this trio plays tonight, will go a long way in determining what Boston’s 3-7 ATS road record will be after the game.
For the C’s to rebound in Game 4, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can not play the same again. Pierce played like was pushing too hard, trying to prove to posse; he was California cool, while showing street toughness being back home on the big stage. Look for him to be more relaxed, after practicing a few gang signs. Boston is 29-12 against the spread on the road after playing as an underdog and Garnett personally let a golden opportunity slip thru his fingers. Garnett was 6-21, totaling 13 points. When he set up shop in or near the lane, the less athletic Gasol is rendered useless to stop him. When he drifted out on the perimeter as he often prefers to, coach Phil Jackson could have gotten Radmanovic more minutes.
When asked after Game 3 why he didn’t demand the ball more in the post, since the Celtics offense is more fluid, Garnett responded, "...Hell, if I knew that, I would have done it ... Obviously in the course of a game you try to mix things up ... but for the most part, I watched this game ... But you're right. I probably do need to take the ball to the basket a little more." Just think about how good he would have been playing with Michael Jordan as second fiddle.
As expected, a win by the favorite means the number goes down and the Lakers are 7.5-point favorites with Total having dipped to 191 at Sportsbook.com. The Celtics have covered each contest in this series and are 8-1 ATS when underdogs in the 5-10 point range. Los Angeles has yet to cover versus the C’s in five tries this season.
Even with the total dropping, coach Rivers club is 14-6 UNDER as a road underdog this season, while L.A. is 16-4 UNDER after a win by six points or less this season.
Expect the stars to shine with tipoff set for 9:05 Eastern, since they will ultimately decide Game 4, however it will be the other players for both teams that will put these individuals in position to be adored.
StatFox Power Line – Lakers by 5
NBA: Betting Lakers might require strong stomach (9:05 PM, ABC)
2008-06-10
Heading back to Los Angeles, it was the Lakers who were supposed to be in control of the NBA Finals’ series. Instead, it’s the Celtics up 2-0 and threatening to blow the series wide open. Oddsmakers apparently haven’t taken notice, installing the hosts as 9-1/2 point chalk, much to the delight of 71% of early bettors, who are backing Boston against the spread.
Remember being in pre-school or first grade or possibly with your children; playing games were you had to come up with answers to teachers questions? The idea was to you as a child or anyone, come up with a list of answers to individual questions. It could be a fascinating topic, often not thinking of the answers others would happen to think of. For example, if the question would be, what are things that are soft, thoughts like pillows, ice cream, and a rabbit come to mind or for more creative types, the sun setting on a placid lake. For this composite list of soft things, add the Los Angeles Lakers.
Bettors universally assumed the Lakers and Kobe Bryant in particular would be spitting venom in Game 2, and took Los Angeles from opening line of +2, all the way to -1.5 at tipoff. Instead, the Lakers were like a big dog asleep on his back. From the beginning of the second quarter, until the start of the last stanza, they were “out” every-thing(ed) by Boston. Out- shot, rebounded, passed, dunked, defended and most importantly out-hustled. The Celtics won the middle portion of the game 63-39, in dominating fashion.
Thou Paul Gasol’s numbers show 17 points and 10 rebounds, not one of those figures were critical and thus far it is obvious the Spaniard couldn’t box out a statue of John Quincy Adams. Evidently teams never ran a pick and roll, free throw line extended against the Memphis Grizzlies, since Gasol is alarming out of position, leaving the baseline wide open, explaining how Rajon Rando could have 16 assists in game two.
Boston has played like a team wanting a championship, bringing lunch pale and getting into defensive stance. They have double-teamed Bryant at every opportunity and not one other player in a purple uniform stepped up in first two contests. Lamar Odom has been out of position on both ends of the floor and is playing more confused than useful. If Los Angeles is not to fall to 8-19 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, coach Phil Jackson has to find players who can match the C’s thirst for excellence.
After last contest, Jackson had to say something about free throw disparity (38-10) and though a more than a few calls were questionable, the referee’s are human and Boston was so much more aggressive, they earned the right to have the official’s benefit of the doubt. The Lakers made reserve Leon Powe look like the perfect replacement for Kevin Garnett in the future; as he scored 21 points, but did it with what L.A. lacked, hustle and heart. The Celtics are 28-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog.
In a somewhat curious twist, the oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com are banking on bettors and Lakers backers to support Los Angeles as 9.5-point favorites, with total of 195.5. No doubt the Lakers 8-0 (6-2 ATS) playoff record at Staples Center is impressive; nonetheless, the Celtics have won and covered all four meetings between these long-time rivals and the first two games before Jan. 1, seems like a moot point at present.
For Los Angeles to get back into series, defense is number one prerequisite. They can’t be so easily out of position and must button down gaping holes and not run out to open shooters, leaving chasms to basket. L.A. is 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more. The bench must have more production, especially by Luke Walton, who has been a no-show thus far in the Finals. The Lakers keep falling into Boston’s preferred tempo, and need to make them play more uncomfortably. Send four players to defensive glass and have perimeter player on opposite side of where shot was taken, be a mid-court first pass option to force tempo. Finally, show gumption, the feeling in viewing the body language of L.A. is they are surprised Boston is as physically and mentally tougher than San Antonio.
The two teams combined to make 19 three-point shots in last encounter and with the Celtics 9-14 beyond the arc, they are 13-2 ATS after a game where they made 50 percent of their three-point shots or better this season. Doc Rivers will ask for same energy and 48 minutes to take commanding 3-0. If they maintain poise, they’ll just have to do what guitar legend Eric Clapton wrote about from his Cream of Clapton CD, the song - Blues Power, where the lyrics say, “Keep on, keep on, keep on keeping on.”
Game Three from downtown Los Angles starts a bit after 9 Eastern on ABC.
NBA: Betting NBA Finals – Opinions vary
2008-06-04
The NBA Finals will start on Thursday in Boston and not unexpectedly, StatFox Steve and StatFox Doug see this series very differently. Los Angeles is a -200 favorite at Sportsbook.com to win the series. Here’s a look at how the guys think it might play out.
In a unique version of the StatFox Scuffle, we thought we would throw questions at them about the Finals and let them share their feelings. Always insightful and never dull, here is what our guys had to say about crowning an NBA champion.
Were you surprised to see the Lakers at -200 favorites for the series?
StatFox Steve: I was very surprised to see Los Angeles as a favorite at all. I think oddsmakers are putting way more stock into what has happened in the postseason than the entire body of work for 2007-08. Let’s not forget, Boston won 66 games in the regular season and was the cream of the crop in the NBA from start to finish.
StatFox Doug: I wasn’t surprised the Lakers were favored to win the Finals, what did surprise me was the first couple of sportsbooks I looked at had Kobe and company at -160, which meant they were wagered heavily. Some might be shocked to see the Lakers favored at all, with regular season record and owning home court advantage, but Los Angeles played in tougher conference and has been by appearance, the best team in the playoffs.
Matchups are extremely important during the playoffs, who has the edge in the backcourt?
SF Doug: Obvious edge here to the Lakers, just having Kobe Bryant. Ray Allen will try to guard Bryant; however it will be fruitless task. Allen responsibility will be to stay within single digits of Bryant on offense, negating his considerable edge. Allen has shot better in recent games and will be fully rested, providing him energy. The other matchup might be more a mismatch. Rajon Rondo is a 50-50 or 60-40 guy. For every brilliant play he makes, he’ll do something equally dumb or on his better games be more proficient 60 percent of the time. Derek Fisher has seen every type of player in his career and will play a few mental games with Rondo.
SF Steve: I think anytime you have a player like Kobe Bryant on the court for a team, that team is going to have the advantage in terms of discussing particular matchups. Unless Cassell is able to step up his play and be a bigger factor in this series, the Lakers are going to have a large talent, execution, and experience edge in this area. Bryant & Derek Fisher boast a wealth of playoff experience, while for Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, this is a first Finals trip.
What about the frontcourt?
SF Steve: Los Angeles has a decent frontcourt with Gasol and Odom being very versatile big men, but Garnett and Pierce make up an elite forward-center combo. I think the ability to produce most of their points in this area gives the Celtics a sizeable edge in this area. Plus, Garnett is one of the league’s best defensive players. Gasol is thought of as soft on that end of the court. He is going to have to be very tough physically in the series to contain K.G.
SF Doug: This could be the swing aspect of the series. If Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and almost more importantly, Kendrick Perkins play their best, they will place a great deal of pressure on the Lakers frontline. The L.A. frontcourt has players like Paul Gasol and Lamar Odom who are not always mentally in the game. If things start getting rough underneath how will they respond? Overall, this category has to favor Boston, but difficult to determine by what measure.
What team has more weapons coming off the bench?
SF Doug: This is a decided edge for the Lakers. Sasha Vujacic can be instant offense off the bench and bring energy. At 6’7, the Celtics have nobody to guard him off screens and he has competent understanding of the Triangle-offense. Jordan Farmar can be tenacious defender and Luke Walton seemingly can provide whatever coach Phil Jackson needs. This style of play in this series would seem to favor Walton’s talents. Boston counters with Eddie House and Sam Cassell, hard time seeing either making significant contributions. If the C’s are to negate the Lakers advantage off the pine, it will have to come from Leon Powe, P.J. Brown or James Posey. Expect Lakers to have double digit edge in most games off the bench.
SF Steve: So much of what Boston does comes from its starting five and in particular the “Big Three”. Los Angeles has a number of more qualified role players from which to get contributions from. I guess I’d have to give the bench edge to the Lakers, although with the number of minutes the Celtics starters play, I don’t think this will have a big role in the series. The Finals games are spread out fairly evenly allowing for ample rest. Let’s face it; both teams are fatigued at this point in the year due to playing 100+ games.
How big a part will coaching have in the Finals?
SF Steve: The teams know each other by now after playing so many games, so only the little adjustments that the coaches make can be a difference. Phil Jackson’s experience plus the fact that he boasts a player that takes the game into his own hands in Bryant gives him the edge.
SF Doug: There is a reason why only six coaches have won the last 21 NBA titles. They have the best teams and know how to push the right buttons of professional basketball players. The skill or lack of is more noticeable in the postseason for head coaches, as the subtlety of adjustments is on display from game to game. If you’ve listening to the coaches in the huddles, Phil Jackson devises plays and is essentially, coaching. Boston’s Doc Rivers, on the other hand is more a cheerleader and life coach, asking his players to keep pushing, giving effort. Rivers does have a staff that is very solid at X’s and O’s, yet on the game’s biggest stage, Jackson is head and shoulders above Rivers.
Steve, seeing you like Boston, what will your Exact Games wager be?
You know, I like the fact that Boston was able to come up with two wins in Detroit in the East Finals. It put to rest any thoughts that the Celtics couldn’t win on the road in the playoffs after being the league’s best road team in the regular season. This confidence is what makes the difference in the series to me. I don’t expect the Celtics to sweep the games at home, and I don’t expect them to lose all the games on the road. Therefore, I’ll be looking Sportsbook.com at just over 4-1 odds in a Game 7 in Boston, going with the home folks.
I think Boston has incredible value as a series underdog here. The Celtics have been the team to beat from wire-to-wire and 66 wins in the regular season is all the evidence you need to support that. They were 25-5 against the supposedly better Western Conference this year, including 2-0 against Los Angeles. In fact, the two wins in the regular season came by 13 & 19 points. I also think you need to consider the fact that Boston has been a much better team defensively this season than the Lakers. The fact that Los Angeles yields over 101 PPG & 44.4% FG shooting is clearly a concern. In their run to the Finals, they beat a Denver team whose defense is an afterthought, a Utah team that saves its best effort for the offensive end, and a tired San Antonio club. Meanwhile, the Celtics escaped Atlanta then played through two rugged series’ against strong defensive minded clubs. L.A.’s defense will be a walk in the park after that. All of that, plus home court advantage has me backing Boston.
Doug, you’re backing the Lakers, what is wager on the same bet?
I’m taking Los Angeles in six at 15-4 odds to be crowned champions for a 10th time since moving to SoCal. Many will bring up the Celtics beat the Lakers twice during the regular season and by double digits to boot. For those with short memories, Cleveland beat San Antonio twice last season and how did those finals conclude? One aspect to remember is star power. What player can take over a game in the fourth quarter to lead his team to victory? Has Kevin Garnett shown that quality often in the playoffs? What about Paul Pierce? Than you have the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant. His name is now frequently mentioned with Michael Jordan, for mental toughness and clutch performances. With three rings already, he can even the score with Shaq, don’t think that’s not important. Take a look at all the teams that have won the NBA championship since 1980 and each had the best coach, with the best player, with one exception (Detroit- 2004) in 37 years. Los Angeles celebrates.
Who are you picking for series MVP?
SF Steve: Garnett. K.G. is going to be a load in the middle for the Lakers to contain. He is equally effective on both ends of the court as well and is probably the league best long term veteran player who has yet to sniff the finals. He is heady and experienced enough to take advantage of this opportunity. Though he might not be Boston’s leading scorer for the series, I think he will be its most important player and I’ll take him at 5-2 odds.
SF Doug: Actually at 1-2, it’s impossible to bet on Kobe, but there is little doubt in my mind he is the man and walks off with daily double of season and series MVP.
NBA: Crazy series has bettors bewildered for Game 5
2008-05-29
It’s a good thing Detroit and Boston has come down to a best two-out-of-three, since based on the first four games, we’ve learned absolutely nothing to this point. Still, with the Celtics playing as a 5-point favorite in Game 5, nearly 75% of bettors believe the hosts will prevail this evening.
This series has featured more twists and turns than the “Mantis” at Cedar Point Amusement Park in northern Ohio. What nobody seems to know, even the coaches, what will happen next, making it a real gamble what choices bettors have to go thru in order to predict the correct side and total.
Detroit rolled the dice in Game four and they came up winners, thanks to Antonio McDyess. The former Denver Nugget, with the explosive high-flying game, saw that element disappear beginning in 2002, with three surgeries in 18 months. His willingness to fight back and remake his game is a constant source of inspiration with his teammates. McDyess scored 21 points, snared 16 rebounds (seven offensive) and played forceful defense to help the Pistons even the series. Rasheed Wallace most accurately described McDyess, “"Dice so far has been the best player in this series,". Detroit heads back to Boston 19-6 ATS after two or more consecutive Unders this season.
The expression, “no rest for the wicked” is on the nose for the Boston Celtics. The Celtics shot a playoff low 31.8 percent in last contest and were never in sync on either end of the floor. What McDyess brought, is what Boston lacked, energy and passion. The grind of the playoffs might be getting to Doc Rivers team, unable to put together back to back efforts in the East Finals. The Celts have now played 16 games in 31 days, all high intensity contests, causing not only physical fatigue, but mental as well. "I don't like to use the fatigue card,” Rivers said “ ,but I don't think it's physical fatigue, but yes, from watching the film, there was some mental fatigue." Boston hopes playing at TD Northbank Garden will reenergize them and don’t fall prey to being 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season.
In series such as this, Game Five will be critical. Boston is a six-point favorite, with Total presently at 173 at Sportsbook.com, matching the lowest figure since the series opener. This Eastern Conference final has been about one constituent, desire. If Kevin Garnett and the rest of his mates come to play, they’ll improve to 13-4 ATS playing at home. If the Detroit backcourt plays with the passion McDyess, they should win and move up to 8-1 ATS as a road underdog in the 5-10.5 point range.
This story will best be told by the veteran players. McDyess expressed to his teammates to take nothing for granted, since you never know when this is your last opportunity. Paul Pierce after hearing his quotes said this, “We don’t get this opportunity too much in our careers,” he said after practice. “We have to go out and play like it’s our last, because you never know when this is going to happen again. … We have to find some way, somehow to get a win at home and bring that momentum back to Detroit.”
ESPN picks up the coverage for Game Five starting at 8:35 Eastern, with the underdog 9-3 ATS in last dozen meetings.
StatFox Power Line- Boston by 1
NBA: Underdog Spurs looking to even series (9:05 PM ET, TNT)
2008-05-23
Much like Boston in its series opener, San Antonio despite little rest, came out and took the game to the Lakers. Though the Game 1 pointspread never came in doubt, the Spurs still find themselves down 1-0 in the West Finals. Nearly 60% of early bettors believe San Antonio wasted its best chance to win in L.A., backing the hosts as 6.5-point chalk.
For those who had the Spurs and the points, the 20-point lead, just past the mid-point of the third quarter was the equivalent of having the Giants against New England in the Super Bowl. For those who felt a bit greedier and played San Antonio on the money line, by the middle of the last period, it was like an episode of Nanny 911, you knew the outcome.
What San Antonio failed to do, was close out individual quarters against the Lakers. Basketball, by its very nature is an ebb and flow game, yet if a team is as ineffective as Los Angeles was for large chunks of time in Game One and still can hang around, they might put themselves in position to win.
In the opening 12 minutes, Tim Duncan and San Antonio was crisper and opened up 24-16 lead; however, but the end of the period led 27-24. The largest lead the Spurs were able to grab was 10 points in second quarter and managed to stay around that figure buy the half, leading 51-43. A combination of the San Antonio playing well and the Lakers not, opened an opportunity for the black-clad Spurs to lead 65-45 with 5:40 left in the third period. Phil Jackson went to a smaller lineup and as analyst Doug Collins correctly stated, the Lakers needed defensive stops and got them. By the end of the third were back in the ballgame down by only seven.
In the last stanza, San Antonio must have felt like a tidal wave from the nearby Pacific Ocean took them out to tide, scoring just 13 points, compared to the Lakers 24, in drowning to defeat. Though the Lakers fell to 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 games, they got what they needed to win. Kobe Bryant borrowed Dwight Howard’s cape, to score 25 points in the second half. In series preview of the Western Final, bench play was listed as important and it was decisive in series opener. L.A. import Sasha Vujacic, personally outscored the Spurs bench (10-9), leading the Lakers to 21-9 edge.
Even with the loss, Greg Popovich’s club is still 13-3 ATS in Conference playoff action. What has to change for the Spurs to win game two is a few adjustments and good fortune. Though it could be a risky move, putting Michael Finley back in the starting lineup might be a wise idea. Finley’s been struggling with his shot, thus, getting him into the flow of the game early, might help him find the range. Finley’s a below average defender, but without ability to score, is a real liability in this series because of matchups. This places Ginobili back on the bench, to give his weary body a few more minutes rest and possibly see how he can better attack the Lakers, more so on the perimeter. If Ginobili can score points off the pine, the other bench players may come in with more confidence. What is not good here is San Antonio’s 3-8 ATS road record.
Sportsbook.com has the Lakers as 6.5-point favorites, with total of 193. Los Angeles has to feel great, since Lamar Odom and Derrick Fisher were combined 4-21 from the field. Chances are that won’t happen again and Jackson’s team is 13-2 ATS when they make 39 to 45 percent of their three-point attempts in a game this season.
These two teams have played UNDER five of last seven meetings. This doesn’t ensure this will continue, as the Lakers 14-6 OVER after failing to cover. San Antonio has played more to norm, being 8-3 UNDER in last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 5-10.5 points.
TNT has the TV rights for the Western Conference Finals and Popovich-coached teams are 17-7 UNDER when trailing in playoff series.
StatFox Power Line- Lakers by 5
NBA: Detroit Bettors need Chauncey Billups
2008-05-22
Chauncey Billups has been the face of the Detroit Pistons’ playoff runs for the past six years. His disappearing act in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals has bettors weary, as over 80% of them are backing host Boston as a 4-1/2 point favorite in Game 2.
If Billups’ hamstring is 100 percent, with 13 days of rest since last game, then those who bet Detroit to win the series, better start betting Boston in game by game side bets, to recoup the money they will eventually lose. In Game 1, Billups showed the explosiveness of former teammate Darko Milicic (not good) and was decidedly outplayed by Boston second-year Celtics floor leader Rajon Rondo (also not good).
Billups averaged 21.2 points and 7.4 assists in the previous five playoff games against Philadelphia and Orlando, before going down against the Magic. Richard Hamilton was able to step his game against the Magic, but the league’s best defensive team did not allow that to happen on its home court. "I feel good," Billups said after 88-79 loss. "I feel good." If feeling good leads to nine points and two assists in 31 minutes, Pistons backers better run and hide.
Detroit fans can turn to the fact; the Pistons are 13-5 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average of 10.1 points per game. Another positive is this Motor City bunch is 12-3 ATS after allowing 90 points or less three straight games, proving they can step up it up a notch when called to. However, Billups lack of playing, especially as these heighten awareness times is worrisome, even to teammates. "He'd better get it back quick because the game isn't waiting on us to get well," said Pistons veteran guard Lindsey Hunter. "I saw he was hesitant, but it had better take one game for him to get back."
In viewing the action of series opener, it appeared Detroit, not Boston had gone thru a seven game series and had to play just over two days later. As ESPN announcers were talking about the Pistons window of championship opportunity closing, having won one NBA title despite five prior trips to East Finals, they played like most presumed the Celtics would. Rasheed Wallace looked like he was playing defense in quicksand, his feet were so slow. Richard Hamilton had no “Rip” to his game, compiling 15 points against an aging Ray Allen. Detroit looked every bit the team that is 5-16 ATS in Conference Finals.
This leads to something that surfaces annually now in Detroit, how good a game and playoff coach is Flip Saunders? How good was the timing to pull the upset against a run down Boston team after two mentally grueling series? Instead the Pistons played like a 1994 Ford Taurus in need of a tune-up.
Sportsbook.com opened Boston up obligatory 3.5-point favorite, down a point from series opener, figuring Detroit has a greater need to win after losing Game One. This might seem foolish since the Celtics have won nine straight playoff home games and have reeled off 15 wins in a row at TD Banknorth Garden (12-3 ATS).
When you think about the Detroit, if they aren’t good enough to beat Boston, their legacy will be that of a very good team that either lacked the right players or coaching to take them to the top of the hill. If you eliminate Miami, since they torn apart as quickly as they were built, the Pistons would be the only team since the 1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers, with Julius Erving, Moses Malone and Maurice Cheeks, that assembled a squad that was among the best in basketball for a period of time and one only one NBA championship.
The East Finals resume on ESPN starting at 8:35 Eastern, with Detroit 1-7 ATS in last eight underdog roles.
StatFox Power Line- Boston by 3
